How does the Luck page decide if I am lucky?

Before you start

• Your history synced at least once: How do I run my first full sync?

Step by step

1. Open Statistics → Luck. Next to “Counts as a hit”, Covert (red) and Extraordinary (gold) are selected by default.
2. The tile “Your hit rate” is your hits divided by the weapon cases you opened, and “Hits” shows how many that is.
3. The official odds are 0.64% for Covert and 0.26% for Extraordinary, 0.90% together, shown under your rate as “expected 0.90%”.
4. “Luck factor” is your hit rate divided by those odds. 1.00× is exactly as expected, above 1.00× is lucky (green), below it is unlucky (red).
5. “Hit rate by case” shows the same figure per case; the thin tick on each bar is the expected rate, and a bar that passes the tick beats the odds.

Good to know

• Knives and gloves both count as Extraordinary, never as Covert; the rarity figures, streaks and dry spells on the Statistics tabs use the same rule.
• Only weapon cases count. Souvenir packages, capsules and trade-ups do not.
• A hit is judged on the first item you received from an opening.
• The chips after “Counts as a hit” choose which rarities count. The expected rate moves with them, and at least one chip always stays selected.
• “min. N opened” only hides cases with fewer openings from the “Hit rate by case” list; it does not change the luck factor, your hit rate, the hits or the cases opened.
• The tick's place depends on the longest bar, so it is not a fixed position on the list.
• “Luckiest case” under the list names the case with the best rate.
• With few openings the rate swings widely: one hit in two openings is 50%.
• The year menu changes everything on the page.
• The Overview's Luck card shows the same factor for Covert plus Extraordinary.
• Until openings are synced the page says “No case openings tracked yet.” and offers “Sync your inventory”.
• The Luck page is free.

What counts as a “hit”, and what does “min. 10 opened” do?

The chips after “Counts as a hit” choose which rarities count. By default these are Covert and Extraordinary. Click a chip to add or remove a rarity; the expected rate under “Your hit rate” moves with your choice, and at least one chip always stays selected.

“min. N opened” only hides cases with fewer openings than N from the “Hit rate by case” list. It does not change “Luck factor”, “Your hit rate”, “Hits” or “Cases opened”, which always use all your weapon case openings in the chosen year.

How do knives and gloves count in rarity and luck?

Knives and gloves both count as the gold Extraordinary tier, never as Covert. A knife you pulled from a case is therefore a hit under Extraordinary.

The same rule applies to the rarity figures, streaks and dry spells on the Statistics tabs.